GLOBAL TRENDS 2025: THE N.I. COUNCIL’S PROJECT 2025

GLOBAL TRENDS 2025: THE N.I. COUNCIL’S PROJECT 2025

“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. [...]

• Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
• The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes & rules of the game.
• The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
• The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.
• Russia’s emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector & the persistence of crime and government corruption.
• Muslim states outside the Arab core - Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran - could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
• A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa & South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
• A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
• Multiple financial centers will serve as ’shock absorbers’ in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar’s role will shrink to “first among equals” in a basket of key world currencies.
• The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
• The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia & Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves.
• The Global Trends series examines geopolitical trends & analyzes their likely outcomes, in an attempt to prompt public discussion of possible responses. The projections have covered five-year intervals, beginning with Global Trends 2010 issued in November 1997.
• Al-Qaeda’s weaknesses — unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions — might cause it to decay sooner than many people think
• Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation & acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries
• Types of conflict we have not seen for a while — such as over resources — could reemerge!

(dni.gov)